EKOS deals with the first and second choices in this graph: SEE RIGHT—–>>
EKOS addresses the critical issue of vote splitting and strategic voting in the following paragraphs, emphasis added:
The most important asset for the government remains the split of the center-left. Without strategic voting or some form of tacit or explicit co-operation between the progressive parties, they risk seeing Harper retain power with an even smaller plurality than the Conservatives took in 2011. It also appears that both the Green Party and the Bloc are being caught in this dynamic; many progressive voters who like them and their leaders seem to feel the stakes are too high to support them this time.
So there’s a strong risk of the New Democrats and Liberals splitting the progressive vote and allowing the Conservatives to eke out a narrow victory.
For our West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – Sea-to-Sky riding, with the Greens steadily falling nationally, with no disrespect for Elizabeth May or Ken Melamed, barring a stellar performance by Elizabeth in the upcoming debate it would appear that Canadians are sufficiently focused on dumping Harper & Co., including embracing a coalition government if that is what it takes, that the Green vote will continue to dwindle as we move closer to EDay.
The remaining question becomes whether Mulcair’s performance and approval will be sufficient to carry the NDP into striking distance of unseating Weston or whether the Liberal option and the candidacy of Pamela Goldsmith-Jones will carry her to victory in our riding. As noted above, the EKOS poll has yet to factored into a projection for our riding, but on its own it isn’t likely to have a dramatic effect on the numbers.
So, our emphasis on strategic voting is clearly well placed. Having said that, I think we should watch the August 6th debate, wait a few days for the polls to be conducted and get together to discuss what the strategic choice is looking like.
– Jef Keighley